Season Snowfall Prediction

[sdsnocop]

Our local weather forecaster gave out his prediction for this upcoming winter. He was predicting a weak elnino pattern for this winter which relates to warmer than normal temps and equal chances of above or below normal precipitation. He stated the last winter we had a weak elnino was the winter of 05-06. I did a comparison of the snow pack winter of 05-06 and last winter based on the 2 Black Hills snotel sites. Winter of 05-06 favored areas south of Trailshead with snow pack totals comparable to last years snow pack where areas NE of Trailshead were down from last winter.

Blind Park (South of Trailshead) 05/06 vs 13/14
12/1 10" vs 9" up 11%
1/1 21" vs 21" no change
2/1 22" vs 28" down 21%
3/1 30" vs 33" down 9%
4/1 29" vs 31" down 6%

Rapid Creek (NE of Trailshead) 05/06 vs 13/14
12/1 8" vs 12" down 33%
1/1 18" vs 24" down 25%
2/1 17" vs 29" down 41%
3/1 23" vs 34" down 32%
4/1 23" vs 32" down 28%

 

[cacsrx1]

Hope your weather guy is wrong.......

 

[sdsnocop]

The Farmers Almanac is predicting cold temps and normal snowfall for the Northern plains which includes the Black Hills. We have had the coolest and wettest spring and summer the 22 years I have lived here. Fall started out hot and dry but lately has turned cool and wet. Hopefully the pattern will continue.

 

[sdsnocop]

Check out the DOT webcam at Hardy Camp. It is currently snowing up there. Snow is sticking to one of the cameras.

 

[sdsnocop]

KELO TV had their winter prediction special tonight. They agreed with the Farmers Almanac and are predicting cooler than normal temps and normal snowfall amounts. They do not believe Elnino will develop this winter. They put out a snow total prediction for Deadwood of 173 inches which is about normal.